A/B Testing for Product Managers
What a Test Can and Cannot Tell You
An A/B test answers one question very well and is silent on everything else. Most disappointment comes from expecting it to answer the others.
A Test Tells You | A Test Says Nothing About |
|---|---|
Did version B perform differently from version A? | Why it performed differently |
By roughly how much, within a range | Whether you built the right thing at all |
Whether that difference is likely to be real | What users were trying to do |
Whether it broke anything you were watching | Anything you didn't think to measure |
What happened to these users, this month | Whether the effect lasts |
The second column is why testing and talking to users are complements rather than alternatives. A test tells you that the new checkout converts 6% better. It cannot tell you that it works because people finally understand the delivery timing, and without that, you don't know what to do next.