A/B Testing for Product Managers
What "Significant" Actually Means
This word causes more confusion in product meetings than any other. Here is what it means in plain language, and what it does not mean.
SIGNIFICANCE, PLAINLY
WHAT IT MEANS
"If there were genuinely no difference between the two versions, we'd see a gap this large by pure chance less than 5% of the time."
WHAT IT DOES NOT MEAN
That the result is important
That you're 95% sure the change works
That the effect is as big as the number you measured
That a non-significant result means "no difference"
THE MOST USEFUL REFRAME
Significance answers: "is this probably real?"
Effect size answers: "is this worth anything?"
You need both. Significance alone tells you almost nothing about whether to ship.
Significant and Meaningless at the Same Time
With enough traffic, a 0.1% lift becomes statistically significant. It is real and it is worth nothing. Teams with large user bases ship these constantly, because the tool turns green and green means ship. Always ask what the effect size is in business terms before you ask whether it's significant.