A/B Testing for Product Managers
Why Most Tests Are Too Small
Underpowered tests are the norm rather than the exception, and they fail in a particularly unhelpful way: they return "no significant difference" whether or not the change worked. The team concludes the change didn't help, when the honest conclusion is that the test couldn't tell.
What the Team Concludes | What Actually Happened |
|---|---|
"The change didn't work" | The test couldn't have detected it either way |
"Our users don't care about this" | We had 6,000 users and needed 60,000 |
"A/B testing doesn't work for us" | We've run six underpowered tests in a row |
"It's directionally positive so let's ship" | That direction is indistinguishable from noise |
The fix is cultural as much as technical: calculate the sample size at the idea stage, and treat an impossible sample size as a reason not to build the test. Teams that do this run fewer tests and learn more from each one.