A/B Testing for Product Managers
Peeking
The most common error in A/B testing by a wide margin. You check the result on day four, it's significant, you stop the test and ship. The problem is that significance fluctuates during a test, and if you keep checking you will eventually catch a moment where it crosses the line by chance.
WHAT PEEKING DOES
A test with no real difference between variants, checked every day for three weeks:
Day | Result | Note |
|---|---|---|
Day 3 | +6%, significant | Stop here and "win" |
Day 5 | +2%, not significant | |
Day 8 | -1%, not significant | |
Day 11 | +4%, not significant | |
Day 14 | -5%, significant | Or stop here and "lose" |
Day 18 | +1%, not significant | |
Day 21 | 0%, not significant | The truth |
There was never any difference. Daily checking gave two opportunities to conclude confidently and wrongly.
Checking every day roughly triples your chance of a false positive compared with checking once at the end.
The Practical Fix
Decide the end date before you start and don't look at outcomes until then. If you genuinely need early stopping, for a risky change, or a long test, ask whoever owns your analytics to set up a sequential testing method that accounts for repeated checks. That exists and it's legitimate. Informal daily checking is not the same thing.