A/B Testing for Product Managers
The Flat Result
Most tests come back flat. This is the most common outcome and the most consistently misread. A flat result means one of three quite different things, and you have to work out which.
What Flat Might Mean | How to Tell | What to Do |
|---|---|---|
There genuinely is no difference | The range is narrow and centred near zero | Believe it. Don't ship. Learn from it. |
The effect is smaller than you could detect | The range is wide, spanning both directions | You learned nothing. Note that honestly. |
The effect exists but not for everyone | Pre-declared segments show different directions | Investigate, but carefully (see Chapter 8) |
"Not Significant" Is Not "No Difference"
This is the single most important sentence in the chapter. A test that was too small to detect a 5% lift returns "not significant" whether the true effect was 0% or 5%. Reporting that as "the change made no difference" is a factual error, and it leads teams to abandon ideas that were working. Say "we couldn't detect a difference" instead, it's accurate and it's a different conclusion.