A/B Testing for Product Managers
The Six Things That Invalidate a Running Test
What Happened | Why It Breaks the Test | What to Do |
|---|---|---|
Someone changed the page mid-test | You're now testing two different things | Restart. The data before the change is unusable. |
A marketing campaign sent unusual traffic | Your sample isn't your normal population | Note it. Consider excluding those days, or restart. |
An outage hit one variant | That variant's numbers reflect the outage | Restart if it was more than a few hours |
Another test started on the same users | The two effects are tangled | Stop one. Decide which matters more. |
A public holiday or sale landed mid-test | Behaviour that week isn't typical | Extend by a week and note the anomaly |
The variant was accidentally shown to everyone | No control group for that period | Restart |
Restarting Is Not a Failure
The instinct is to salvage a contaminated test because three weeks feel expensive. A contaminated test doesn't produce a weaker answer, it produces an answer you can't distinguish from a wrong one, and you'll make a decision on it anyway. Restarting costs three weeks. Shipping on corrupted data can cost a quarter.
COPY THIS PROMPT - Pre-Launch Review
I'm about to launch an A/B test. Review my setup and find what
I've missed.
THE TEST: [what you're testing, both variants described]
PRIMARY METRIC: [and how it's tracked]
GUARDRAILS: [list]
DURATION: [planned weeks, and the sample size behind it]
AUDIENCE: [who's included, who's excluded]
WHAT ELSE IS HAPPENING: [other tests, campaigns, releases planned
during this window]
Please tell me:
1. Anything in my setup that could produce unusable data
2. Specific ways my tracking could be wrong in one variant but
not the other - this is the failure I most want to catch
3. Whether anything else happening in this window could
contaminate the result
4. Who I should tell about this test before it starts, and what
specifically to tell each of them
5. What I should check on day two, and what I should deliberately
not look at