A/B Testing for Product Managers
Effect Size and the Range
Your test reports that variant B converted at 3.6% against 3.2%. That single number is the middle of a range, and the range matters more than the point.
What You're Told | What It Means | Ship? |
|---|---|---|
+12%, range +8% to +16% | Confidently positive, decent size | Yes |
+12%, range +0.5% to +24% | Probably positive, but could be trivial | Maybe, consider running longer |
+2%, range -1% to +5% | Could be a small gain, could be nothing | No clear answer. Don't claim a win. |
+0.3%, range +0.1% to +0.5% | Real, confidently tiny | Only if it costs nothing to maintain |
-9%, range -14% to -4% | Confidently worse | No. And worth understanding why. |
Ask your tool or your analyst for the range, not just the headline number. A wide range means you don't really know the size of the effect, and that's important information, particularly when someone wants to build a forecast on it.