A/B Testing for Product Managers
The Four Deaths
Most failed A/B tests don't fail because the change was bad. They fail because the test was never capable of producing an answer. Knowing which of these four you're heading for saves you the three weeks.
How It Fails | What It Looks Like | Root Cause |
|---|---|---|
Too small to see anything | Result is flat. Nobody knows if it worked. | Not enough traffic for the effect you're looking for |
Measured the wrong thing | Metric went up, business didn't | The metric could be won without creating value |
Contaminated | Result looks odd; someone changed something mid-test | No process protecting the test while it ran |
Unusable regardless of outcome | "Interesting" result, nobody changes anything | You never decided in advance what each outcome would mean |
The Test That Should Never Have Run
Before designing anything, ask: what will I do if this wins, and what will I do if it loses? If both answers are the same, or if either answer is "nothing," you have no reason to run the test. This single question retires more bad tests than any other technique in this course.