A/B Testing for Product Managers
Slicing Until Something Wins
The test is flat. Someone suggests looking at mobile users. Still flat. New users on mobile? There's something. New users on mobile in the UK who arrived from paid search, significant. Ship it.
With enough slices you will always find one that looks significant, because that's what randomness does. Twenty segments at the usual threshold means roughly one false positive by chance alone, every time.
Legitimate | Fishing |
|---|---|
You declared the segment before the test started | You found it after the overall result disappointed |
There was a reason to expect it to differ | The reason was constructed afterwards |
You treat it as a hypothesis for a new test | You ship on it |
You report it as exploratory | You report it as the result |
Segment Findings Are Hypotheses, Not Results
It's fine to look at segments after the fact, that's how you generate ideas. What isn't fine is shipping on one. Treat it as an interesting signal, design a test for that specific segment, and see whether it replicates. About half the time it won't, which tells you what it was.